Kari Lake Election Expert Gives Ballot Breakdown: ‘No Path’ to Victory for Hobbs

Gina Swoboda, an elections expert helping the Kari Lake campaign, offered a very encouraging report on Friday concerning the votes yet to be counted in the Arizona governor’s race.

Swoboda told “Real America’s Voice” host Charlie Kirk that 351,000 Republicans who are four-out-of-four voters — meaning they voted in the last four primary and general elections — have not had their votes in Tuesday’s election tabulated yet.

Kirk noted that these are “very high-propensity” Republicans who have not yet had their ballots counted.


As of midday Friday, there were about 518,000 ballots yet to be counted statewide, the vast majority of which were in Maricopa County (the Phoenix metro area).

Lake trailed Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by about 27,000 votes as of Friday evening.

Swoboda, executive director of the Voter Reference Foundation, said the county informed Lake’s legal team that there were 292,000 Election Day drop-off ballots still to be counted in Maricopa.

Additionally, there are approximately 12,000 of the 17,000 so-called “Box 3” ballots to be tabulated, a large percentage of which are also likely from high-propensity GOP voters.

Box 3 is where Election Day voters were instructed to deposit their ballots when over 60 polling locations in Maricopa County experienced tabulation machine problems. The ballots were then taken to the Maricopa County Department of Elections facility downtown.

“Generally, these are the high-propensity voters,” Swoboda said. “These are the people that went in on Election Day or dropped [their ballot] on Election Day because they wanted to make absolutely sure that their vote counted.”

The election expert also stated that the remaining ballots in the Democratic stronghold of Pima County, which includes Tucson, are trending toward Lake by a 51 to 49 percent margin or so.

“[Hobbs] has no path. … No matter what, period,” Kirk said.

“Correct,” Swoboda responded.

Lake explained to podcast host Steven Crowder on Thursday morning why the Election Day drop-off ballots should break strongly for her.

“Those are people who are nervous about dropping them off in those drop boxes. They’re nervous about dropping them in the mail. They want to show up on Election Day and hand-deliver it,” Lake said.

“Those are going to go heavily our way,” she said. “These are Republican voters. These are people who distrust the election system. And those would be voters who would vote for me.”

Lake said those ballots will likely be between 60 and 80 percent in her favor.

In 2020, these Election Day drop-off ballots trended heavily for then-President Donald Trump, allowing him to cut now-President Joe Biden’s lead from over 90,000 votes to the Democrat’s ultimate victory margin of just 10,457 votes.

Nicole Grigg with KNXV-TV reported Friday that Maricopa County is expected to release the results of around 80,000 more votes on Friday night, the majority of which will be mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day.

Things are looking very good for Kari Lake!

This article appeared originally on The Western Journal.